🔴 Situation Room | HUMINT Advisory — Premiere

Step inside. The screens light up. Pressure builds.

Welcome to the strategic cockpit of boards and CEOs.

Case: Rio Tinto

Breaking news.

Simon Trott, 25 years at Rio Tinto and head of iron ore since 2021, will take over as CEO on August 25, 2025, succeeding Jakob Stausholm. An internal, conservative choice at a moment when the global race for critical resources is accelerating.

Rio Tinto, with 2024 revenue of USD 53.6 billion and an underlying EBITDA of USD 11.5 billion in H1 2025 (despite a 13% drop in iron ore prices), must now navigate between its historic iron ore cash engine (Pilbara output 328 Mt in 2024, guidance 323–338 Mt for 2025) and its pivot into transition metals: lithium and copper.

On the ground: consolidation accelerates.

The mining sector is heating up. Lithium demand is projected to surge at a CAGR of 18.2% from 2025 to 2030, reaching USD 74.81 billion, with EV batteries accounting for nearly 95% of demand by 2030.

Copper, essential for electrification, posted 3.3% demand growth in Q1 2025, with looming shortages by the end of the decade and forecasts of USD 12,000/t this year.

Rio Tinto is moving: the acquisition of Arcadium Lithium to expand lithium leadership, Resolution Copper in the US to secure copper supply. But geopolitics weigh heavily: strained supply chains (China–Australia), Simandou iron ore in Guinea, where Trott has already met with the president.

Flashing red signals:

• A “safe” profile: Trott, master of iron ore (USD 16.2 bn EBITDA in 2024, down 19% YoY with price pressure), now faces a disrupted industry shaped by geopolitics and ESG.

• Lithium/copper strategy running parallel to iron ore’s cash flow (83.7 Mt produced Q2 2025, +5% YoY). Can both be scaled without diluting margins?

• The global deal game: staying in play (lithium demand x3.5 by 2030) without triggering geopolitical or market storms.

On the boardroom table:

Can Trott, the insider, reinvent himself as a disruptive strategist to lead decisive acquisitions? How to balance the iron ore cash machine (~70% of revenues) with high-risk, high-need investments in lithium (USD 164.77 bn market by 2033) and copper (289,000 t surplus in 2025, but demand rising fast)? What story will reassure investors, regulators, and states in a world where every move is filtered through ESG and geopolitics—with copper at USD 4.45/lb and lithium in boom mode?

What HUMINT sees.

Beneath the “stable” choice lies the real battle. CEOs don’t win by playing the safe playbook. They win by reading the invisible: turning apparent continuity into leverage for dominance in global consolidation. By anticipating ruptures—like copper demand outstripping supply by 2030—and navigating geopolitical chaos in real time.

HUMINT Advisory enters the room where it happens. Where CEOs and boards redraw the future—under pressure, in real time.

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