🔴 Situation Room HUMINT – August 30, 2025 – PUMA

Puma in free fall: €247M net loss in Q2. Why do CEOs keep coming and going without reviving the brand?

Puma embodies the narrative trap: once a brand loses its identity, no leader can save it without rewriting its story.

The facts – indisputable

Stock price: Puma at €21.49 (closing 08/29) → -50% in 12 months, ~-70% over 5 years. Nike: -54% since 2021. Adidas: -22% in 2024, ~-50% over 5 years. Lululemon: -46% YTD 2025. Q2 2025 results: sales down -8.3% to €1.94B; net loss €247M (vs +€41.9M in Q2 2024). H1 2025: sales €4.02B (-1%); adjusted EBIT guidance €520–600M → annual deficit trajectory. Sneaker market: bubble burst, shift back to sub-€100 models; Puma perceived as “generic” versus Veja or On Running. Divestment: Artémis/Kering seeking to sell its remaining 29%; stock jumped +17% on sale rumors. External shock: US tariffs (20% on Vietnam imports, 40% on transshipments) = ~€80M extra costs. Leadership: Arne Freundt exits in April (strategic disagreements); Arthur Hoeld (ex-Adidas) appointed CEO in July. Trend still negative.

HUMINT Decryption

This decline is not just operational: it is an identity crisis.

Without a credible narrative, every CEO becomes a firefighter. Human dynamics — team morale, investor confidence, talent loyalty — turn against the brand.

Boardroom Scene – August 2025

Behind closed doors, tensions flare:

Financial: “How do we absorb €247M in losses and US tariffs without wrecking the sale?” Strategic: “Do we bet on retro relaunch or accept Artémis’ exit?” Human: “Can Hoeld embody a turnaround as internal turnover spikes?” Cultural: “How do we convince the market Puma isn’t ‘cheap’ while Nike and Adidas rebound?”

The invisible challenges

Short term: reassure markets, absorb +20% US tariffs without collapsing US sales (-10% possible). Mid term: retain key talent, diversify production away from Vietnam (2–3 years minimum). Long term: rebuild a cultural narrative (retro, partnerships, repositioning) or sell — estimated valuation ~€3B.

HUMINT Advisory Strategic Reading

Boards rely on numbers. HUMINT reads the invisible: the narrative void.

A brand without a collective story is an empty shell, destined to erosion.

A cost-cutting plan doesn’t reignite an identity.

Conclusion

A CEO rarely fails from incompetence.

They fail because they enter a crisis without seeing the invisible dynamics closing in around them.

At HUMINT Advisory, we decode these blind spots, anticipate scenarios, and help leaders write a trajectory before the story shuts down on them.

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