🔴 Situation Room — September 3, 2025

Volkswagen – Porsche: The Fission of a Two-Headed Power

Since September 2022, Oliver Blume has been juggling dual roles: CEO of Volkswagen (revenues €300bn, 680,000 employees, 10 brands) and CEO of Porsche (€40bn revenues, 18% margins). What was sold as synergy has become a conflict of interest, undermining cohesion as global headwinds intensify.

Recent Facts

August 27, 2025: Porsche officially launches the hunt for Blume’s successor, signaling the likely end of his dual mandate. September 2, 2025: Daniela Cavallo, the powerful head of VW’s works council, publicly demands that Blume give up one role, denouncing “part-time leadership” as harmful. May 2025: At the AGM, investors lashed out at “serious conflicts of interest,” calling for a clarified governance model to avoid “massive reputational damage.”

Strategic Context

EV slowdown: VW posted a 14% drop in European sales in Q2 2025, while Porsche maintained a strong premium order book (57% electrified in Europe H1). Punitive U.S. tariffs: Up to 27.5% on German imports, costing VW €1.3bn in H1; counter-move: heavy U.S. investments to bypass barriers. China, the Achilles’ heel: 3.6m vehicles delivered in 2024, but market share eroded by BYD and Nio; BEV sales plunged 34% in Q2 2025.

HUMINT Reading: Beyond Charts, the Shadow Games

This is not mere restructuring — it is a human turf war.

Blume is squeezed between German unions (IG Metall, fronted by Cavallo), the State of Lower Saxony (influential shareholder), Qatari funds, and the Porsche/Piëch clan (masters of family intrigue).

VW seeks to protect its industrial empire in EV and software; Porsche pushes for independence to strike selective alliances and preserve its elite DNA. Signals point to a redistribution of loyalties, where the emerging power vacuum could ignite battles of ego and influence.

Implications for a Board: Decisive Moves

Clear P&L separation: Cross-reporting limited to battery/software R&D and supply chain — neutralizing conflicts at the root. Bulletproof narrative: Frame the fission as an agility boost, not a retreat — rally internal allies around a unified storyline. Cultural safeguards: KPI-driven synergy targets with joint task forces to prevent corporate culture dilution. Preemptive investor/regulator engagement: Quantify gains in ROI, efficiency, and speed; map networks to anticipate resistance.

Conclusion

The signal is unambiguous: the two-headed structure is collapsing under cumulative pressure. Managed well, this fission could free VW and Porsche to dominate their respective arenas. Mishandled, it opens a vacuum ripe for activist investors, combative unions, and volatile markets to fill with chaos.

The challenge: transform a power crisis into strategic rebirth — or watch implosion unfold.

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