🔴 MPS: when the plan survives… but power changes hands

At Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the current crisis is not a strategic one.

It is a control crisis.

The board has approved a major operation:

– full integration of Mediobanca

– exchange ratio: 2.45 MPS shares for 1 Mediobanca share

– potential issuance: €1.6bn

– objective: reposition MPS at the core of the Italian financial system

And yet…

Luigi Lovaglio, the CEO who designed and carried this plan, is being pushed out.

In parallel, investor meetings have been cancelled.

Classic reading: governance turbulence.

HUMINT reading: a breakdown of operational legitimacy.

A leader who presents a strategy… but is no longer trusted by the board to execute it…

is no longer in control.

What is really at stake

This is not an industrial battle. It is a political one. The plan goes through. The man goes out. Which means the real issue is not the merger… but who controls the combined entity. Mediobanca is the hidden key. Behind the technical debate (full integration vs maintaining a listed entity), lies a major issue: the indirect control of Assicurazioni Generali.

In other words:

this banking deal is reshaping the balance of Italian capitalism.

The board is only the visible layer. The real fault lines lie elsewhere: – the influence of Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone – the retreat of the Italian State (≈ 4.9% stake) – judicial pressure (Milan investigation)

Result: a CEO isolated within a system that has reverted to shareholder-driven dynamics.

Critical signal: cancellation of investor meetings

This is not a detail.

It is a message.

A CEO who refuses to “sell” the plan he designed

is signaling one thing:

he no longer believes he will be the one executing it.

In a Situation Room, this is a key indicator:

the decision chain is broken.

Comparison: Credit Suisse 2022

Same pattern.

A transformation strategy is validated.

But internal trust progressively erodes.

Outcome:

– board / CEO misalignment

– market credibility collapse

– crisis acceleration leading to UBS takeover

Key difference here:

MPS is acting earlier.

But the risk remains the same:

executing a major strategic transformation without stable leadership.

Final HUMINT reading

Lovaglio did not fail on substance.

He shifted too many power dynamics.

In this type of system:

strategy does not decide…

the acceptability of its consequences does.

Today, at MPS:

– the deal is alive

– leadership is gone

– control is being redefined

And in such a configuration,

the next CEO will not be chosen to execute a plan—

but to embody a balance of power.

#Humintadvisory